I am looking for a simulation to train some financial services leaders on the impact of short-term vs. long-term thinking. Ideally, scenarios would include decision points about investments, strategy, etc. (i.e., where to invest? How much to lean into innovation, etc.), and would challenge users to balance short term thinking with longer term thinking and investing for the future.
Has anyone seen any Netlogo or other ABM models that deal with these sorts of scenarios?
Thanks,
Paolo
Hi-
Thanks for posting this question; it’s the kind of discussion we hope for here.
We have addressed very simple time horizon issues in a number of models. These are not so much about short- vs. long-term thinking in general but specifically about the effect of the time horizon you choose when trying to optimize tradeoffs such as between investment risk and return.
Chapters 10-12 of our modeling textbook A Course in Individual- and Agent-based Modeling - Scientific Modeling with NetLogo uses an extremely simple investment model and a decision method that optimizes expected utility over a future time horizon. These chapters include exercises in analyzing the effects of long vs. short time horizons. The model could easily be modified to explore related questions.
Our book on modeling adaptive behavior in ABMs Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals has many examples of optimization-like methods for making tradeoff decisions under uncertain conditions, and extensively considers the effects of time horizons. Unfortunately for you, it is intended for ecologists, but the models are quite simple and we intended them to be analogous to human decision-making.
Steve R.
Macroeconomic ABMs such as Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit include firms making decisions about investing in capital goods. However, I don’t know of any interactive versions of models like that. Would be very interesting to make one using HubNet!